Skip to main content

Dears,

I have the historic sales per month, and we have strong seasonality, but also and upward trend. I would like to use the FORECAST_ETS function, however, I don’t understand how to get the value of seasonality. For example I know every July and August we have a drop and then it gets higher on September. In this case the seasonality would be 12?

 

If I want something more exact can I use Python and then get the equation and plug in pigment? 

 

For calculating a better seasonality number, alpha, beta and gamma, is there a way to get those numbers in Pigment, or I need to have another application, such as Python or R?

 

Thanks in advance!

 

Jose

hey Jose,

Forecast_ETS is modeled after the one of excel which is a simple exponential smoothing.

For very seasonal series, I recommend Triple Exponential Smoothing or Holt-Winters.
We don’t have functions for these but both are doable with Pigment metrics and math operators.

You can create it in Python and the output send to Pigment via the API.

Or what I did was to build a custom statistical forecast application in Pigment.
There I used the logic of “Multiplicative Decomposition” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decomposition_of_time_series) to identify the real seasonality and trend.

 

Reply


Ask your question here!

Terms & ConditionsCookie settings